Since its inception in 2009, bitcoin has followed a relatively predictable rhythm: wild bull runs followed by crushing bear markets. Rinse and repeat. However, once bitcoiners figured out those predictable cycles, we came to rely on them to improve our stacking impact. However, most people never even saw the cycles to benefit from them.
But what if that cycle just broke? What if bitcoin doesn’t crash after this bull market? What if the “cheap sats” you’re waiting for… never show up again?
A few bitcoiners are starting to ask some hard questions about cycle assumptions, and this might be one of the most important of the decade for stackers.
📉 No Bear Market = No Bargain Bin Sats. No K-mart Blue Light Specials!
For seasoned bitcoiners, the post-halving correction has always been a gift, one last chance to scoop up discounted sats before the next cycle leap.
But now, what if the game is changing? Here’s why I am asking this question:
- Institutional demand (think BlackRock, Fidelity, bitcoin treasury companies, government bitcoin reserves, and now, brokerage firms) is absorbing the kind of sell pressure that is used to tank the market (MarketWatch, 2024).
- ETFs and long-term HODLers are locking up more bitcoin than ever before, because those HODLers see the supply shocking…coming quick (CryptoBriefing, 2024).
- Retail supply at the exchange level is drying up, and there are fewer panic sellers flooding the market (OKX, 2024). Most recently, a bitcoin OG (original gangster) liquidated billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoin for USD. As a bitcoiners, I don’t understand this move, but I am sure this person had their reasons.
- The fiat system is on fire (debasement and Inflation at all-time highs), and people who are paying attention, are jumping ship faster than ever.
If this holds, we may not see another -80% crash. Instead, we could see gradual consolidation at higher levels… or worse (for the unprepared): a relentless grind upward that never looks back.
â›” Waiting for the Dip? You Might Get Left Behind.
If you’re holding cash on the sidelines like some of us have trained ourselves to do, waiting for bitcoin to go back to $80k or even $50k… here’s what you need to understand:
1. Sats Get More Expensive Over Time
At $250,000 per BTC, $100 gets you just 40,000 sats. A few years ago, that same Benjamin could’ve bought you 400,000. That’s 10x less Bitcoin for the same money. You didn’t lose dollars, you lost opportunity.
2. Anchoring Bias is a Silent Killer
Many investors get emotionally stuck on past price points. “I’ll buy when it hits $50k again,” they say. I remember waiting for bitcoin to go down to $8k again, but it never did. But if bitcoin never hits $50k again, that mindset becomes a recipe for watching the rocket leave without you, I have been there, but I learned from that mistake.
3. The New Floor Might Be Higher Than You Think
If bitcoin becomes a true monetary reserve asset, which is rapidly becoming, then 100k could become the new floor, not the ceiling. This isn’t a wild guess, it’s macroeconomic math.
đź’ˇ What to Do Instead
If you’re watching from the sidelines, consider these strategic moves instead of waiting for a fantasy dip:
✅ Start DCA’ing (Dollar Cost Averaging) Now (I am hoping you already have…but)
Buy small amounts consistently, weekly or monthly. However, now is a great time to increase the amount of those weekly or monthly amounts. DCA removes emotion from the equation and builds your stack over time. I am not going to lie; this has been my #1 accumulation strategy since 2018. #2 has been cash-out mortgage refi’s, but that is another topic altogether.
âś… Think in Satoshis, Not Dollars
Stop asking “How much is 1 bitcoin?” and start asking “How many sats can I stack before it’s out of reach?” It is all about perspective. The only reason we, in the U.S. denote bitcoin in terms of dollar ($) is because that is our current form of money. However, as the dollar continues to be debased and its value erodes to zero, we will no longer think in terms of $. This is not speculation, this is…again, macroeconomic math.
âś… Treat Every Pullback as a Blessing
In a world where bitcoins’ price floor is always rising, even a -10% dip might be your last chance to load up. As of the day before this writing, bitcoin dipped down to $116k, and I grabbed more Sats. It is now over $118k again.
🧠Final Word: The Lifeboat Is Leaving
bitcoin is rapidly becoming a lifeboat for anyone trying to escape the sinking fiat ship. If you’re standing around waiting for it to come back and pick bitcoin up at a lower price…You might be waiting forever.
“The dip might not come. Stack now. Or risk never stacking at all.”
Because in this new era of bitcoin, hesitation is the most expensive decision you can make.
References
CryptoBriefing. (2024, May 28). Bitcoin bull run to $120K? New data reveals strong support and long-term holder strength. Retrieved from https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-bull-run-120k/
CryptoSlate. (2024, April 26). Bitcoin’s 2024 HODLer net position change mirrors historical cycles, signals potential price stabilization. Retrieved from https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoins-2024-hodler-net-position-change-mirrors-historical-cycles-signals-potential-price-stabilization/
MarketWatch. (2024, May 22). Bitcoin ETFs rake in $14.8 billion as whales push the crypto’s price to all-time highs. Retrieved from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-etfs-rake-in-14-8-billion-as-whales-push-the-cryptos-price-to-all-time-highs-da0992ae
OKX. (2024, June 10). Institutional accumulation driving Bitcoin ETF inflows. Retrieved from https://www.okx.com/learn/bitcoin-etfs-inflows-institutional-accumulation
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